(28th September 2015) Even with sustained global economic growth over the next fifteen years the world will likely fall well short of meeting the UN’s Global Goals, and a “productivity revolution” in creating social value is needed if countries are to meet the UN’s new goals, according to Deloitte UK and the Social Progress Imperative.
‘Social Progress in 2030’ report published today by Deloitte UK uses data and assumptions from the Social Progress Index (SPI) to demonstrate the scale of the challenges ahead. It finds that:
- Using the SPI as a proxy for the Global Goals the world needs to score 75/100 (based on SPI metrics) to meet the Goals. The world currently scores just 61/100.
- Massive increases in real per capita GDP over the next fifteen years will still not get the world anywhere close to meeting the Global Goals. Global GDP per capita is forecast to increase 58% (from US$14k today to US$23k) by 2030 but the corresponding increase in social progress is projected to only be minimal. Global social progress will rise from a world average today of 61/100 to only 62.4/100.
- Even if real per capita GDP doubled over the next 15 years – way above most forecasts – the world will still fall short, scoring around 63/100.
- The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were met partly because economic growth was able to lift the least well off out of poverty. But Deloitte estimates that economic growth alone will not help the world come close to meeting the Global Goals – business as usual is not enough. Why? The Global Goals focus far more on metrics which correlate negatively with GDP (e.g. ecosystem sustainability which looks set to worsen in the coming years) than the MDGs.
- The solutions to meet the Global Goals will be multiple and complex. They will require a focus, for example, on the ‘Big Six’ countries (India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and Brazil), who are expected to have a combined 47% of the world’s population by 2030. Yet some of these countries have very low Social Progress Index scores (Pakistan and Nigeria are in the bottom 12 countries globally in the SPI rankings). Without these countries making a sustained effort, meeting the Global Goals becomes even more difficult.
- More than economic growth, the countries of the world need a productivity revolution in the creation of social progress over the next 15 years if they are to stand any chance of meeting the UN’s ambitious vision for our world.
David Cruickshank, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, said: “We have a historic opportunity– to combine the policy power of government with the convening power of civil society and resources of business — to better target and tackle obstacles to social progress. This report highlights the need for these entities to look beyond GDP if they want to help achieve the UN’s Global Goals by 2030.”
“There is light at the end of the tunnel. A number of countries, for example Costa Rica and Rwanda are already experiencing higher levels of social progress than may be expected given their GDP per capita levels. If more countries managed to follow this path substantial achievements could be realised globally.”
The SPI is a proxy for measuring the effectiveness with which the Global Goals are being met because there is significant overlap between what the SPI measures and what the UN’s Global Goals measure. Deloitte UK used the observed relationships between GDP and the SPI to calculate the estimated levels of economic growth and social progress increases respectively that could be required to pull the world up to the point that the Global Goals can be met.
Michael Green, Executive Director, The Social Progress Imperative which publishes the Social Progress Index said: “The UN’s Global Goals are ambitious and achievable but as today’s findings starkly illustrate it will require far more than economic growth alone to meet them. Nothing short of a productivity revolution in the creation of social progress over the next 15 years is required if we are to stand a chance of meeting the UN’s ambitious vision for our world.
“The announcement of the Global Goals is just the beginning of the debate about how we improve the lives of millions of people around the world. The success of the Global Goals rests on ensuring policy-makers, citizens, civil society and businesses can all track countries’ progress and identify areas in need of improvement. The Social Progress Index provides the robust metrics with which to achieve this, making an impact on the wealth and wellbeing of all citizens in societies rich and poor as the world embarks on this ambitious journey to deliver sustained and inclusive development for all.
The Social Progress Imperative created the Social Progress Index working in collaboration with scholars from the Harvard Business School and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), as well as international organizations in social entrepreneurship, business and philanthropy led by the Skoll Foundation and Fundación Avina as well as Cisco, Compartamos Banco, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (Deloitte Global) and its member firms (Deloitte).
